Social Sciences in China (Chinese Edition)

No. 5, 2025

The Historical Materialist Interpretation of “Historical Cycle of Rise and Fall”

(Abstract)

Wu Fulai

A scientific interpretation of the “historical cycle of rise and fall” must be grounded in the worldview and methodology of historical materialism. Unlike historical laws, which reveal the essential and necessary connections in historical development, the concept of a historical cycle of rise and fall serves as an empirical description of the recurring rise and fall, disorder and restoration, and dynastic succession observed in Chinese feudal society. At its core, this concept addresses a political problem: how to achieve durable regime stability and long-term peace. This historical cycle can be broadly understood as the periodic recurrence of historical patterns, which to some extent hinders the practical realization of historical inevitability. In contrast to other social formations, the cyclical issue in socialist society pertains to the regression of social formation, that is, the outdated modes of production overpowering emerging ones. This idea provides a theoretical foundation for the possibility and actuality of transcending the constraints of the historical cycle. Rooted in scientific theory, informed by an understanding of historical laws, and guided by historical values, the Communist Party of China (CPC) has—through more than a century of integrating self-reform and social revolution—identified two effective paths to break free from the historical cycle of rise and fall. In leading this process, the CPC has opened a new chapter in the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through Chinese modernization.