Social Sciences in China (Chinese Edition)

No. 10, 2025

Major Country Trade Rivalry and Global Climate Governance

(Abstract)

Xu Qiyuan, Li Chunding and Li Meng

Climate change is a global challenge, yet strategic rivalry among major countries has cast a shadow over international climate governance. In particular, the trade confrontation initiated by the US against China risks increasing global carbon emissions. Incorporating carbon emissions and trade conflict behavior into a global general equilibrium model, this study finds that although the US-initiated trade conflict suppresses economic growth and thus reduces emissions, its structural effects result in a substantially larger increase in global emissions. Under the baseline scenario, mutual tariffs of 60 percent between China and the United States would increase global carbon emissions by nearly 410 million tons. When technological effects associated with the Environmental Kuznets Curve are considered, the negative impact becomes even more pronounced. Therefore, the US-driven trade confrontation constitutes a form of “pollution-intensive” competition that exacerbates global carbon emissions. Countries should reconsider the consequences of major-country rivalry for global governance failure and prioritize building “green major-country relations” to strengthen global climate governance.