Social Sciences in China (Chinese Edition)

No. 2, 2025

Chinese Family Fertility Decisions in the Context of Intergenerational Development

(Abstract)

Li Jing

In the pursuit of Chinese-style modernization driven by high-quality population development, it is necessary to scientifically capture the inherent laws of population development and align population growth with economic and social development. Incorporating intergenerational development factors into the family fertility-education decision-making model reveals that once income reaches a certain threshold, households tend to increase educational investment as a substitute for fertility. At the same time, promoting intergenerational upward mobility helps boost overall societal fertility rates. Empirical tests have shown how intergenerational upward mobility impacts both fertility intentions and actual fertility numbers. Further analysis demonstrates heterogeneity in fertility-education decision-making patterns across income groups, with middle-income families experiencing greater pressure from educational investment competition. To optimize population development strategies in the new era, it is crucial to introduce guidance and incentive mechanisms, proactively expand opportunities for intergenerational upward mobility, and accelerate the establishment of public service systems, institutional environments, and social conditions conducive to high-quality population development.